National Hurricane Center (NHC) to update products in 2024

From the National Hurricane Center on “X” (formerly Twitter); April 11,2024

The National Hurricane Center is updating products and services for the upcoming 2024 hurricane season, including the following:

1) Spanish language advisory text products
NHC will expand its offering of Spanish language text products to include all Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update, and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin, and the Public Advisory, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update, Key Messages, and the Tropical Weather Outlook in the eastern Pacific basin. These products will be issued experimentally in 2024 and will use AI techniques tested in 2023.

2) Issuance of U.S. watches and warnings on Intermediate advisories:
In order to allow for additional flexibilities for the issuance of U.S. tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches and warnings, the NHC/NWS will now have the ability to issue those watches and warnings on Intermediate advisories. Previously, tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches and warnings could only be issued for the United States on full or special advisory packages. Full advisory packages are issued at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM EDT. Beginning in 2024, NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate Public advisories.

3) Extension of tropical storm (39 mph, 34 kt) and 58 mph, 50 kt)) wind radii
forecasts to days 4 and 5:

NHC is extending its tropical storm 39 mph (34 kt) and 58 mph (50 kt) wind radii forecasts to days 4 (96 hours) and 5 (120 hours) in the NHC Forecast/Advisory (TCM) in 2024. Previously, NHC has provided these forecasts out to 3 days (72 hours). Hurricane-force (64-kt) wind radii will continue to be provided out to 2 days (48 hours).

4) Weblinks in the Public Advisory:
The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP) product will include, as needed, a reference to websites that provide pertinent graphical hazard information beginning with the 2024 hurricane season. The weblinks are intended to help reduce the length of the TCP product and to direct the focus to the most significant and impactful storm surge and rainfall hazards and areas.

5) Change to the time zone reference in the eastern Pacific:
Beginning on or about May 15, 2024, the time zone of reference for most eastern Pacific tropical cyclone forecast products will change. Most of Mexico no longer observes Daylight Saving Time, therefore Central Standard and Mountain Standard time will be used in lieu of Daylight Saving Time within those two time zones. Since Daylight Time is used within portions of Baja California and the southwestern United States, Pacific Daylight Time will continue to be used within that time zone when Daylight Saving Time is observed.


6) Experimental Cone Graphic with a depiction of inland watches and warnings for the United States:
Beginning on or around August 15, 2024, NHC will begin issuing an experimental version of the cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States. The experimental cone graphic will be available on hurricanes.gov for both full and intermediate advisories. The current operational cone graphic will continue to be available, and there will be no changes with respect to how watches and warnings are displayed on that graphic (i.e., only coastal watches/warnings will be depicted).

7) Experimental international tropical cyclone rainfall graphics:
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) in partnership with the NHC will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides a display of forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a specified time period, based on forecaster discretion. The graphic will allow for enhanced communication of the expected rainfall to external partners, media, and the general public. The product will be publicly available via hurricanes.gov whenever there is an active tropical cyclone or potential tropical cyclone in the region with a rainfall statement in the Public Advisory.

8) Annual update to the track forecast error cone:
The size of the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone for the Atlantic basin will be about that same through 48 h but slightly larger from 60 h through day 5 as compared to 2023. For the eastern North Pacific basin, it will also be similar in size to the 20232 cone through 60 h, and slightly larger at days 3 through 5.

9) New Marine Forecast Product “Offshore Waters Forecast for the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean”:
The current Offshore Waters Forecast for the Southwest and Tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the National Hurricane Center will be divided into two new products beginning Tuesday, March 26, 2024 by 1030 AM EDT (1430 UTC). The new Offshore Waters Forecast product will consist of all the Atlantic zones currently north of 19N and be named “Offshore Waters Forecast for SW N Atlantic Ocean” (WMO ID/AWIPS ID FZNT25/MIAOFFNT5). The remaining zones in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic waters south of 19N will comprise the newly re-configured “Offshore Waters Forecast for the Caribbean Sea and Tropical N Atlantic” (WMO ID/AWIPS ID FZNT23/MIAOFFNT3).

For more information:

NHC_Updates_2024.pdf (noaa.gov)

NOAA’s FY 2025 Budget Request

From NOAA’s Office of Communications (March 13, 2024)

NOAA’s FY 2025 Budget Request Supports Biden-Harris Administration Goals   Priorities include observational infrastructure, climate resilience and expanded data and services

NOAA’s fiscal year (FY) 2025 budget request proposes $6.6 billion in discretionary appropriations, an increase of $187.9 million from the FY 2024 annualized continuing resolution level. The request prioritizes investments in the critical operational and infrastructure activities that support NOAA’s ability to carry out its mission. These substantial investments, along with other targeted increases, build on investments from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) designed to foster a climate-ready nation and support economic development through enhanced science, data and observational capacity.   “People count on NOAA every day for reliable and actionable climate and extreme weather information to help make informed decisions that help save lives and livelihoods,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “This budget will allow NOAA to improve on our legacy systems while also providing significant improvements in diverse data and product services we provide the nation every day.”   NOAA will continue to integrate equity across the organization by improving capabilities, and honing product development and service delivery in tribal and underserved communities.  

Invest in critical satellites
NOAA satellites are critical for NOAA’s mission, as well as the security, safety and prosperity of the nation. Data from these satellites provide essential support to all segments of the U.S. economy. NOAA will continue investing in observational infrastructure to ensure the next-generation satellite systems meet the ever-expanding needs of the nation. Concurrent investments in the current and next generation of environmental satellites, such as continuing the development of the GeoXO satellite program, will provide sustained observations from geostationary orbit to provide improved weather forecasting, real-time monitoring of air quality conditions and improved ocean forecasting and fisheries management.  

Expand climate products and services to build climate resilience
As part of a whole of government approach, NOAA’s FY 2025 request will invest in delivering actionable environmental information to decision makers focused on the risk areas of wildfires, floods, drought, extreme heat, the coasts, marine resources and overall climate risk mitigation while NOAA also continues to implement Executive Order 14008 on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. Highlights include: Establishing an end-to-end value chain for climate and weather data and services by investing more in observational infrastructure, decision-support tools, service delivery and conservation across its diverse set of missions. Optimizing the NWS Integrated Dissemination Program to ensure the reliable and timely provision of weather and climate predictions, forecasts and warnings to the public, emergency management partners and the U.S. weather enterprise. Supporting more days at sea and hours in the air for research needed to support critical mission requirements and complete the acquisition of a second high-altitude Gulfstream G-550 research jet to study hurricanes, atmospheric rivers and other weather phenomena using FY 2025 funding and previously approved IRA funding.

Provide science and data to inform economic development
The FY 2025 budget will allow NOAA to continue to foster environmental stewardship while optimizing advances in science and technology to support value-added, data-driven sustainable economic development, with a particular focus on the New Blue Economy. Highlights include: Continuing to support the Administration’s goal of deploying 30 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030, minimizing the effects of offshore energy projects on protected marine resources, fisheries and important habitats, and mitigating impacts to NOAA assets and fisheries surveys. These and other activities will protect biodiversity and promote ocean co-use while supporting renewable energy development. Supporting the production of 42 million hatchery salmon and steelhead released in the Columbia River Basin, which will translate into the harvest of about 250,000 fish that add to commercial, recreational and tribal fisheries. These funds will augment the $60 million in IRA funds for Columbia River Basin hatchery-deferred maintenance and repairs. Enhancing commercial space companies’ experience obtaining regulatory approvals and providing a simple method to disseminate information regarding U.S. space activity regulation, standards and best practices.  

Bolster equity
NOAA will continue to support Executive Order 13985 on Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government and EO 14091 Further Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government. NOAA will integrate equity across the organization by improving capabilities and knowledge sharing, and honing product development and service delivery in tribal and underserved communities.

Update and maintain crucial facilities
Safe and modern facilities are vital to support NOAA’s mission of science, service and stewardship. In FY 2025, NOAA will continue investments to reduce its deferred facilities maintenance backlog and perform planned leasehold improvements.   To read the FY25 Congressional Justification and for more information, visit our website.      

Note: NOAA will host a stakeholder briefing within the next few weeks where NOAA leadership will share details and answer questions about the FY25 Budget.

NWS Transformation

As announced at the NWS Partners Meeting at the American Meteorological Society’s Annual Meeting in Baltimore, MD during January 2024, the National Weather Service (NWS) is implementing a plan to make the agency more flexible. Information about NWS Transformation objectives and activities can be found at the following web address:

NWS Priorities & Action Strategies for the Future — “Ken’s 10” | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov)

NWS Priorities & Action Strategies for the Future — “Ken’s 10”

Transforming the NWS into a more nimble, flexible, and mobile agency that works eye-to-eye with critical decision-makers in building a more Weather-Ready and Climate-Ready Nation.

The National Weather Service (NWS) Priorities & Action Strategies for the Future – more fondly known throughout the NWS as “Ken’s 10”, named after NWS Director Ken Graham – are designed to ensure that the NWS remains an indispensable, global leader in providing equitable weather, water, and climate services to decision-makers anytime, anywhere. Taking on ten key initiatives at a time, Ken’s 10 is building a workplace focused on the health and well-being of the NWS’ people, infrastructure, and future.

About

When NWS Director Ken Graham began his tenure in June of 2022, he embarked on a series of conversations with employees that highlighted a major opportunity for the NWS to pioneer a more nimble, flexible, and mobile agency. These conversations inspired the creation of ten priority initiatives titled “The NWS Priorities & Action Strategies for the Future,” designed to build an NWS that provides decision support services when, how, and where they’re needed to create a more Weather-Ready and Climate-Ready Nation.

The NWS Priorities & Action Strategies for the Future serve three overarching themes: People, Infrastructure, and Future, as outlined by the NWS Strategic Plan 2023-2033 and Transformation Roadmap, and they focus resources and attention on common issues, clarify common goals, and acknowledge areas that need concentrated problem-solving and decision-making.

These change initiatives are not inclusive of all the important work happening across NWS, nor are they meant to cover the breadth of all NWS mission areas or the NWS projects underway and on a path to delivering results.

How it Works

Behind each initiative is a designated team of experts and leaders from across the NWS tasked with carrying the project from inception to final execution. When one project finishes, another will take its place, ensuring that there are always ten in “Ken’s 10.” Learn more about ongoing and completed projects below.

If you’re interested in learning more about the NWS Priorities & Action Strategies for the Future, please don’t hesitate to contact NWS Partnership Engagement Lead Cindy Elsenheimer or NWS Director of Change Management Richard Antoine.

RedLine Performance Solutions

https://redlineperf.com/

RedLine’s focus is on High-Performance Computing (HPC) at the application and system layers, with a history of consistently helping NOAA/NWS meet their mission objectives for the entirety of their 25-year corporate lifetime.  RedLine has worked with numerous models in various analyst and scientific software development roles, supporting both NOAA’s operational/production and research/development environments. The depth of RedLine’s expertise extends beyond scientific software development to managing the daily, 24×7 operational workload of NOAA’s models, and engineering, optimizing, and administering supercomputers and their system software. RedLine has grown to be a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador and American Meteorological Society (AMS) member with several teams of experts partnering with multiple NOAA organizations across the country.

Friends of NOAA at AMS

Friends of NOAA (FoNOAA) was present at the recent American Meteorological Society’s Annual Meeting, held January 29-February 1, 2024 in Baltimore, MD.  FoNOAA member organizations showcased their work and ties to the meteorological community, including intersections and arcs with NOAA.  In the Exhibit Hall, there were FoNOAA table top cards at several booths.  A big “thanks” to member institutions for promoting FoNOAA at AMS.  These interactions at AMS and other FoNOAA events are all part of FoNOAA leadership’s effort to broaden ties between FoNOAA and NOAA at all levels — which we believe will foster greater understanding of NOAA’s mission, and outline areas where FoNOAA can have meaningful impact. 

NOAA’s 2023 Arctic Report Card

NOAA has released information about the 2023 Arctic Report Card that can be found at:

Report Card 2023 – NOAA Arctic.

ARCTIC ESSAYS

More frequent extreme weather and climate events are transforming the Arctic, yet resiliency and opportunity lie within diverse partnerships

The Arctic is increasingly warmer, less frozen, and wetter, with regional extremes in weather, climate patterns, and ecosystem responses. Centering locally and internationally-focused partnerships, long-term observations, and equitable climate solutions provides Arctic communities and nations as well as society-at-large with information and mechanisms to cope with a rapidly changing Arctic.

In the air

  • Average surface air temperatures for the Arctic in the past year were the sixth warmest since 1900.
  • Summer surface air temperatures were the warmest on record.
  • Summer high-pressure systems brought warm temperatures, widespread melting, and exceptional rainfall volumes across the Greenland Ice Sheet.

In the ocean

  • Sea ice extent continues to decline, with the last 17 September extents (2007-23) as the lowest on record. Sea ice extent was 6th lowest in the satellite record, since 1979.
  • August mean sea surface temperatures show continued warming trends for 1982-2023 in almost all Arctic Ocean regions that are ice-free in August. Mean sea surface temperature over regions between 65° N and 80° N is increasing at a rate of ~0.9°F (~0.5°C) per decade.
  • Arctic regions, except for the Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, and Canadian Archipelago, continue to show increased ocean phytoplankton blooms, or ocean primary productivity, with the largest percent change in the Eurasian Arctic and Barents Sea.
  • Since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, rising sea levels have inundated terrestrial permafrost surrounding the Arctic Ocean, resulting in nearly 1 million square miles (~2.5 million square km) of subsea permafrost that is at risk of thawing. International research collaboration is needed to address critical questions regarding the extent and current state of subsea permafrost and to estimate the potential release of greenhouse gasses (carbon dioxide and methane) as it thaws.

On the land

  • North American snow cover extent set a record low in May 2023, while snow accumulation during the 2022/23 winter was above average across both North America and Eurasia.
  • Heavy precipitation events broke existing records at various locations across the Arctic and the Pan-Arctic precipitation for 2022-23 was the sixth highest on record.
  • On 26 June 2023, Summit Station, Greenland reached 32.7°F (0.4°C) and experienced melt for only the fifth time in its 34-year observational history.
  • The Greenland Ice Sheet lost roughly 350 trillion pounds (156 ± 22 Gt) of mass from 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023 because discharge and melting exceeded accumulation.
  • The 2023 circumpolar average peak tundra greenness, which is the overall vegetation, including plants, shrubs, and trees taking over grassland and tundra, as measured by satellite, was the third highest in the 24-year record.
  • In Finland, peatland restoration and rewilding demonstrate a globally relevant climate solution of carbon sinks and point to a need for replication across impacted sites. Rewilding requires partnership, recognition of Indigenous and community rights, and the use of Indigenous knowledge alongside science to succeed and avoid replication of past inequities.

Nunaaqqit Savaqatigivlugich: Working with communities to observe the Arctic

  • The Alaska Arctic Observatory and Knowledge Hub (AAOKH) works with a network of coastal Indigenous observers to document long-term and holistic observations of environmental change and impacts in northern Alaska.
  • Recently, Indigenous observers have noted sea ice loss, warmer air and ocean temperatures, changing wind patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of coastal storms that contribute to flooding and erosion.
  • Indigenous observers also document local-scale impacts of environmental changes to community and cultural infrastructure, traditional harvests and activities, and travel safety across the land and sea.
  • Applying and centering Indigenous perspectives and observations of Arctic change in decision-making can lead to more inclusive, equitable, and community-led responses.

Divergent responses of western Alaska salmon to a changing climate

  • Western Alaska salmon abundance reached historic extremes during 2021-22, with record lows for Chinook and chum salmon (81% and 92% below the 30-year mean, respectively) and record highs for sockeye salmon (98% above the 30-year mean).
  • Salmon are maturing at smaller sizes. Since the 1970s, Yukon River Chinook salmon have decreased an estimated 6% in mean adult body length and 15% in fecundity, or ability to produce offspring, likely exacerbating population declines.
  • Salmon population declines have led to fishery closures, worsened user conflicts, and had profound cultural and food security impacts in Indigenous communities that have been tied to salmon for millennia.
  • Changes in salmon abundance and size are associated with climatic changes in freshwater and marine ecosystems and competition in the ocean. Changes in predators, food supply, and disease are also likely important drivers.

A recording of NOAA’s stakeholder briefing on the 2023 Arctic Report Card can be found at:

Arctic Report Card Stakeholder Briefing

2023 NWS End of Year Recap

From the NOAA Office of Organizational Excellence

Dear NWS Partners – 

Your collaboration is critical to our mission, and we want to keep you updated with the latest happenings at NOAA and the National Weather Service! Here are some recent noteworthy items we wanted to share:  

1. Transformation Roadmap for 2023 

Released earlier this year, the NWS Strategic Plan set the direction for becoming a more nimble, flexible, and mobile National Weather Service by 2033. On October 26th, NWS launched its Transformation Roadmap, outlining our path to achieving these strategic goals. 

Click to read the Transformation Roadmap

2. AI Language Translation Project

For the past 30 years, NOAA’s NWS has provided manual translations of weather forecasts and warnings into Spanish. Now, the agency has a new tool to provide more accurate, efficient, and equitable service.  

Through a series of pilot projects over the past few years, NWS forecasters have been training artificial intelligence (AI) software for weather, water, and climate terminology in Spanish and Simplified Chinese. This effort was supported by the House Appropriations Committee in NOAA’s fiscal year 2023 Congressional budget.

Click to read more about the AI Language Translation Project

3. Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5)

In case you missed it, the recording of NOAA’s National Climate Assessment Stakeholder Briefing is now available. This congressionally mandated, quadrennial report brings together hundreds of experts from federal, state, and local governments, as well as academic, non-profit, and private sectors. The report is a roadmap to a better future through science-based information, data, and real-world examples of ways to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and develop resilience strategies. 

Click here to view the full assessment. 

4. New Orleans Radar Relocation

The WSR-88D Radar located in Slidell, LA will be relocated to Hammond Airport by early 2024. 

The KLIX WSR-88D Radar move to Hammond, Louisiana will provide a drastic improvement in radar scanning strategies for areas of southeastern Louisiana that currently have poorer radar coverage.

Click here to read more about the WSR-88D radar relocation

5. RFI to Inform National Plan for Civil Earth Observations

A request for information (RFI) posted on the Federal Register last week. The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) requests public input and seeks information from stakeholders to inform the development of the congressionally mandated National Plan for Civil Earth Observations.

Click here to view the RFI and provide comments on the first draft of the 2023 National Plan.

6. Winter Campaign

The NWS Winter Safety Campaign officially launches today! Developed by the NWS Communications Division, the campaign consists of social media graphics, videos, and more to help build a Weather-Ready Nation. 

We encourage all NWS partners to use and share this content as appropriate. Most of the campaign content can be found on the Winter Safety website. This public-facing website and its materials can be shared with anyone interested in messaging weather safety.

Click here to find all Winter Safety content so that you can spread the word!

7. See you in January!

Stay tuned for a Save the Date message for the NWS Partner Engagement Event at the 104th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in Baltimore, MD!

Thank you for your partnerships and have a great weekend!

Cindy Elsenheimer
Partnership Engagement Lead, NWS Office of Organizational Excellence

NOAA’s National Climate Assessment

A recording of NOAA’s National Climate Assessment Stakeholder Briefing is now available.

Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator Dr. Richard Spinrad, Chief Scientist Dr. Sarah Kapnick, and Senior Advisor for Climate Ko Barrett, along with six authors discuss key takeaways from their chapters, including the newly added chapters of economics and social science and justice. 

You can find out more about the assessment with the following resources: 

Planet Federal

planet.com

Planet is an integrated aerospace and data analytics company that operates history’s largest fleet of Earth-imaging satellites, collecting a massive amount of information about our changing planet. Planet is driven by a mission to image the entire Earth every day, and make global change visible, accessible and actionable. Founded in 2010 by three NASA scientists, Planet designs, builds and operates over 190 satellites, and develops the online software and tools that serves data to users. Decision makers in business, government, and within organizations use Planet’s data and machine learning- powered analytics to develop new technologies, drive revenue, power research, and solve our world’s toughest challenges.